The growth in seasonal hurricane forecasting

Mardi 28 juillet 2009 2 28 /07 /Juil /2009 08:09

The growth in seasonal hurricane forecasting

The growth in seasonal hurricane forecasting — Gray and Klotzbach issue their first forecast for the following season immediately after the end of the last, and other groups soon follow — suggests that science is nearing the threshold of being able to make much improved forecasts, said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at The Weather Underground Web site.“Users of these forecasts need to keep in mind that these are very much research products and are going to be highly variable in performance,” he said. “There is the risk that spectacular failures of forecasts will turn people off to seasonal hurricane forecasting, when the long-term outlook for their success is good.”While there may be agreement this year in the expectation of a near-normal season, there is considerable disagreement about which areas might receive the brunt of the activity and whether such a thing can even be predicted.